کاربست رویکرد سناریونویسی با هدف آینده‌نگاری اخلاق حرفه‌ای در اکوسیستم کسب و کار ایران

نوع مقاله : مدیریت کارآفرینی( مدیریت کسب­‌وکار، فرایندهای کسب­‌وکار، سیاست‌های کارآفرینانه، کارآفرینی سازمانی، اکوسیستم کارآفرینی، فضای کسب­‌وکار، مدل‌های کسب­‌وکار، چرخه حیات کسب و کارها، . . . )

نویسندگان

گروه پژوهشی توسعه و رفاه اجتماعی، پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی تعاون، توسعه و رفاه اجتماعی؛ دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران

چکیده

هدف پژوهش حاضر، کاربست رویکرد سناریونویسی با هدف آینده‌نگاری اخلاق حرفه‌ای در اکوسیستم کسب و کار ایران در افق 1410 می‌باشد. این پژوهش به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از نظر روش، ترکیبی از روش‌های اسنادی و پیمایشی و از نظر ماهیت، بر اساس روش جدید علم آینده‌پژوهی، تحلیلی و اکتشافی  است. جامعه آماری پژوهش حاضر مدیران بنگاه‌های اقتصادی و اساتید حوزه و دانشگاه فعال در حیطه اخلاق حرفه‌ای و کسب و کارها هستند. در این پژوهش در ابتدا با استفاده از مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و تشکیل پنل خبرگان روندهای مؤثر بر اخلاق حرفه‌ای در زیست بوم کسب و کار ایران در افق 1410 شناسایی و در گام بعدی، طی دو مرحله روش دلفی روندهای شناسایی شده مورد پالایش قرار گرفتند و در مرحله بعدی متغیرهای کلیدی (ده عامل) با استفاده از روش تحلیل ساختاری شناسایی شد و در نهایت با استفاده از روش سناریونویسی، آینده‌های متصور بر اخلاق حرفه‌ای در زیست‌بوم کسب و کار ایران استخراج گردیدند.  در پژوهش حاضر، برای تحلیل داده‌ها از نرم‌افزارهای اس‌پی‌اس‌اس، میک‌مک و سناریوویزارد استفاده شد. در این پژوهش با توجه به ابعاد ماتریس سایب ، تعداد 2857 سناریوی ترکیبی گزارش گردید که از این سناریوها، تعداد 15 سناریوی قوی یا محتمل، 19 سناریوی باور کردنی و 23 سناریوی ضعیف می‌باشند که در خصوص سناریوهای محتمل یا قوی بررسی‌ها نشان داد که اکثر شاخص‌های مؤثر بر آینده اخلاق حرفه‌ای در زیست‌بوم کسب و کار ایران در افق 1410 در شرایط بحرانی قرار دارند. پژوهش حاضر چهار سناریوی «عدالت در فراز و نشیب»، «مدیریت بومی، بازار جهانی»، «بقا در دوران تاریک» و «تعامل ملی، مقاومت جهانی» را به‌عنوان مسیرهای آینده اخلاق حرفه‌ای در کسب‌وکار ایران ترسیم کرده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که عوامل کلیدی مانند شفافیت قوانین، نظارت دولتی، تعاملات بین‌المللی، و تقویت ارزش‌های بومی در بهبود یا تضعیف اخلاق حرفه‌ای و تعهد سازمانی تأثیر دارند. یافته‌های این پژوهش همسو با مطالعات مشابه، بر اهمیت سیاست‌های شفاف، تعاملات بین‌المللی، و تقویت هویت فرهنگی تأکید دارد و به مدیران و سیاست‌گذاران توصیه می‌کند که با رویکردی متعادل، به بهبود فضای اخلاقی و پایداری کسب‌وکار بپردازند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of the Scenario Planning Approach with the Aim of Foresighting Professional Ethics in Iran's Business Ecosystem

نویسندگان [English]

  • Eesa Niazi
  • Mohammad Ali Siahsarani Kojuri
  • Hossein Balouchi
Development and social welfare Research Group, Strategic Studies of Cooperation, Development and Social Welfare Institute, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The present study aims to apply a scenario-writing approach to forecast the future of professional ethics within Iran’s business ecosystem by the horizon of 2031. This research is applied in nature and combines documentary and survey methods, drawing upon new analytical and exploratory methods in futures studies. The target population includes managers of business enterprises and academic experts specializing in professional ethics and business. Initially, through library studies and an expert panel, the study identifies trends impacting professional ethics within Iran's business ecosystem by 2031. Subsequently, these trends undergo refinement through a two-stage Delphi method, followed by the identification of ten key factors using structural analysis. Finally, scenarios were generated to outline possible futures for professional ethics in Iran’s business landscape. For data analysis, SPSS, MICMAC, and Scenario Wizard software were utilized. The analysis yielded 2,857 combined scenarios, of which 15 were categorized as strong or likely, 19 as plausible, and 23 as weak. Among the probable scenarios, the findings indicated that most influential indicators on the future of professional ethics in Iran’s business ecosystem by 2031 are in a critical state. This study outlines four primary scenarios for the future of professional ethics in Iranian business: "Justice in Flux," "Local Management, Global Market," "Survival in the Dark Ages," and "National Engagement, Global Resistance." The results highlight that key factors, such as legal transparency, government oversight, international relations, and strengthening of local values, play a vital role in either enhancing or weakening professional ethics and organizational commitment. Aligning with similar studies, these findings emphasize the importance of transparent policies, international interactions, and cultural identity reinforcement, and recommend a balanced approach for managers and policymakers to improve ethical standards and business sustainability.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Foresight
  • Professional Ethics, Business Ecosystem, Scenario Planning, Cross Impact Analysis
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