آینده‌پژوهی زنجیره تأمین صنعت فرش ماشینی ایران: تحلیلی بر پیشران های اثر موجی

نوع مقاله : مدیریت تولید و عملیات (برنامه‌­ریزی تولید، چابکی، پایداری، ناب، سبز، برون­‌سپاری، زنجیره تأمین، زنجیره ارزش، کیفیت، بهره وری، صنعت چهار و ابعاد آن، . . .)

نویسنده

گروه مدیریت کسب و کار، دانشکده علوم مالی، مدیریت و کارافرینی، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران

10.22080/jem.2024.23655.3754

چکیده

اهداف: زنجیره تأمین فرش ماشینی در سال‌های اخیر با نوسانات زیادی روبرو بوده است. یکی از مهم‌ترین نوسانات، اثر موجی است که در سال‌های اخیر مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. اثر موجی تبعات منفی زیادی برای زنجیره تأمین فرش ماشینی داشته است در نتیجه آینده‌پژوهی سناریوهای محتمل آن در آینده ضرورت بالایی دارد و هدف اصلی این تحقیق است.
روش مطالعه: این تحقیق در صنعت فرش ماشینی ایران اجرا شده است. داده‌ها در طی 4 مرحله و بر اساس نظر خبرگان و به صورت میدانی گرداوری شده است. برای آینده‌پژوهی از نرم‌افزارهای میک مک و سناریوویزارد استفاده گردید.
یافته‌ها: نتایج مصاحبه نشان داد که 15 پیشران برای اثر موجی در زنجیره تأمین وجود دارد که 12 پیشران بر اساس خروجی نرم‌افزار میک مک به عنوان پیشران‌های مهم انتخاب شدند. 4 سناریوی سازگار برای آینده اثر موجی مشخص شدند که یک سناریو مطلوب (زنجیره تأمین استوار)، دو سناریو نامطلوب (زنجیره تأمین لرزان و زنجیره تأمین متزلزل) و یک سناریو حد وسط (زنجیره تأمین حیران) است.
نتیجه‌گیری: برای تحقق سناریوی مطلوب و جلوگیری از سناریوهای نامطلوب باید انعطاف‌پذیری در زنجیره تأمین ایجاد شود. این موضوع از طریق مواردی مانند استفاده از تکنولوژی به‌روز، همکاری، تسهیلات پشتیبان امکان‌پذیر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Future Study of the Iran's machine-made carpet supply chain: an analysis of the ripple effect antecedents

نویسنده [English]

  • Esmaeil Mazroui Nasrabadi
MBA department, financial science, management and entrepreneurship, university of Kashan, Kashan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Objectives: The supply chain of machine-made carpets has faced many fluctuations in recent years. One of the most important fluctuations is the ripple effect that has been observed in recent years. The ripple effect has had many negative consequences for the machine made carpet supply chain, so future research of possible scenarios in the future is highly necessary and is the main purpose of this study.
Methods: This study was conducted in the machine-made carpet industry of Iran. The data were collected in 4 stages based on the opinion of experts. Micmac and ScenarioWizard software were used for future research.
Results: The results of the interview showed that there are 15 drivers for the ripple effect in the supply chain, of which 12 drivers were selected as important drivers based on the output of Micmac software. Four consistent scenarios for the future of the ripple effect were identified as one favorable scenario (robust supply chain), two unfavorable scenarios (unstable supply chain and shaky supply chain) and one mid-range scenario (astonished supply chain).
Conclusion: In order to achieve the desired scenario and prevent unfavorable scenarios, flexibility must be built in the supply chain. This is possible through the use of up-to-date technology, collaboration, and backup facilities.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • supply chain
  • machine made carpet
  • ripple effect
  • future study
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